A high-quality field has been assembled for the Moir Stakes.
Group 1 racing continues in Melbourne with the Moir Stakes and while having two 1000m Group sprint races on the same day in different states has diluted the field, the race is strong and intriguing.
I Wish I Win comes in as the highest rated horse, holding a peak R&S rating (in the last year) of 125, achieved last start in the Kingsford Smith Cup at 1300m.
He kicks off another Everest campaign here with a far more logical approach. 1000m here, into the Manikato at 1200m, into The Everest third up. That's all nice and neat, but 1000m is the obvious query.
His only run at the trip was in the Lightning Stakes some 18 months ago where he was excellent, charging home into second behind three-year-old filly Coolangatta and running to an R&S rating of 118.
118 looks the magic number here, because it's also the peak R&S ratings held by the two market elects, Estriella and Lady Of Camelot.
Estriella achieved that rating her Listed Sunlight Classic (1100m) win and Lady Of Camelot in the Golden Slipper.
Both should be better suited over the Moonee Valley 1000m than I Wish I Win, who is surely going to be out the back, and that's an awful spot to be here.
Horses that are in the first three at the 400m mark at the Moonee Valley 1000m account for two thirds of all winners. Extend that to horses in the first six, which I Wish I Win is unlikely to be, and that figure extends to over 90%.
Good horses can overcome these things, but I think he'll have to go as well, if not better than he's ever gone fresh in the past to win, which looks unlikely.
The market has swung in Lady Of Camelot's favour as she attempts to emulate She Will Reign as a Slipper winner to resume in, and win the Moir.
She Will Reign rated 119 in the Slipper, one pound higher than Lady Of Camelot, and matched that rating in the Moir.
As you'd expect, Lady Of Camelot has trialled very well and likely finds the front from barrier two here. It's always some query with these newly turned three-year-olds stepping out for the first time but she gets every chance to run that rating again.
The one I can't go past is Estriella. I loved her ratings progression last time in going 110-113-118, and she can be forgiven for her miss in the Sangster, riding a fast pace at 1200m in her fourth run in her second preparation.
1000m for her looks ideal, the wide draw is no issue at all from the 1000m start where she should just track Lady Of Camelot everywhere she goes, and her jump outs have been outstanding.
We're getting just shy of $4 for Estriella and I think that price is fair enough.