The Queensland carnival rolls on with the fillies taking centre stage in the Oaks at Eagle Farm.
Warmonger might have performance of the carnival locked up in the Derby last week (and a handy price for readers to boot) but now the girls have their chance, with all eighteen looking for their first Group One success.
The premier lead up looks to be the Group 2 The Roses (2000m), won by Scarlet Oak. While it is the traditional local path for Oaks' fillies, it may be surprising that just three fillies have done the double- Ethereal, Scarlett Lady and Youngstar.
Ethereal and Scarlett Lady hold the call as the highest rated Roses winners at 109 while Youngstar went 105, improving to 107 in the Oaks.
We have Scarlet Oak also running to 105 in her Roses win, but I think she was afforded every possible chance in that race, given a perfect ride from barrier five by James Mcdonald.
She wasn't exactly stopping late however, still recording the third-fastest last 200m of the race, but it's a much trickier scenario on Saturday from a wide gate, even with McDonald sticking. No doubt she's progressive and a key chance, but I'll be looking to get her beaten.
The two best runs in The Roses were Mare Of Mt Buller and Miss Joelene.
Mare Of Mt Buller had hit the line well in the Bracelet at Sunshine Coast prior with the race-fastest last 400m (0.04 seconds off fastest last 200m) and was clearly the best last 200m in The Roses.
Her 11.95 split was around a length faster than the winner, as was her last 400m, while her last 600m was two lengths faster. She also had to make her run back to the inside, which was potentially a bit slower.
She draws better this time with Tommy Berry sticking and if she can land midfield there, she'll relish the extra ground this time around.
Miss Joelene on the other hand, has drawn awfully in 22 and is likely to concede them a fair start. She's also not particularly bred to stay compared to the others, if that's of interest.
Molly Bloom was second in The Bracelet and only just behind Mare Of Mt Buller in The Roses, racing wide for a fair majority of that race. We have her rated 106 in New Zealand as a Group 2 winner over 2000m, and that form held up quite well through Positivity winning the Fillies Classic.
No knocks on her, I just think she's about her right price at that $5.50 mark.
Bringing the different form is yet another Chris Waller mare, Ahuriri, but she too has drawn very wide and doesn't have much early speed. She ran to 97 in her VRC St Leger win and improved to 100 last start in the SA Derby, finishing fifth.
While Warmonger was clearly the run of that race (and went right on with it!), Ahuriri was good and we know she'll stay the trip. She'll need to improve a couple of lengths to be winning and will want this to be a proper test of stamina.
Keen to be with Mare Of Mt Buller in the Oaks. I thought her run in the lead ups have been perfect, strong late in both and hitting this race ready to run a new peak. She draws better than her key rivals, will relish the trip and could be marked shorter than $9.
QUEENSLAND OAKS
Tip: #11 Mare Of Mt Buller at $9
