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Group 1 Preview Japan Cup 2023

One of the most hyped clashes in Japanese racing history takes place this Sunday at Tokyo.

EQUINOX winning the Tenno Sho (Autumn) at Tokyo in Japan.
EQUINOX winning the Tenno Sho (Autumn) at Tokyo in Japan. Picture: Japan Racing Association

Equinox v Liberty Island. 2400m at Tokyo. An outstanding Japan Cup this Sunday at Tokyo promises one of the best winners in history which is saying plenty when you look at the honour roll.

Contrail, Almond Eye (x2), Kitasan Black, Epiphaneia, Gentildonna (x2), Vodka and Deep Impact have all won the race in recent years, and with every passing race it seems Equinox puts his hand up to say he's better than another.

Of that fabulous list of Japan Cup winners, three have run to 130 or above.

Epiphaneia ran to his clear peak rating of 132 in 2014, Kitasan Black ran to 130 in 2016 and the great Deep Impact ran to 132 in 2006.

Almond Eye ran to an enormous 129 in her first of two Japan Cup wins as a three-year-old filly, bettering another two-time Japan Cup winner Gentildonna at 126 when she won as a filly.

Equinox is rated 133, which is just one pound shy of Deep Impact at 134, although he admittedly ran to 130+ in 8/14 starts while Equinox has run 130+ in 2/9 starts.

His last start win in the Tenno Sho Autumn was nothing short of awesome. They went at an insane tempo on very fast ground, he sat just behind the leaders and still put 2.5 lengths on the nearest runners who were better suited coming from back in the field.

The time of 1.55.20, even with the short rolling start, is simply ridiculous and he's clearly come back better than ever.

If you wanted to try and knock him, he is only a month between runs off a very fast race compared to usual breaks of 2-3 months between races, but if he's running 130+, good luck beating him.

That's where Liberty Island comes in. She's one of the best fillies Japan has ever seen, winning the Triple Tiara in dominant fashion, posting a peak rating of 126 over 2400m in the Japanese Oaks.

Compared to the two other top fillies that have won the Japan Cup- Almond Eye and Gentildonna, Liberty Island looks strong.

Almond Eye edged Gentildonna's rating, running to 125+ in her Oaks win, then 121 in the Shuka Sho before her 129 in the Japan Cup.

Gentildonna went 124+ in the Oaks, 119 in the Shuka Sho and 126 beating Orfevre in the Japan Cup.

Liberty Island backed up her 126 in the Oaks with a 121 rating in the Shuka Sho, effectively identical to what Almond Eye has done as a three-year-old. Unfortunately for Liberty Island, she has to face the 133 rated Equinox.

Almond Eye started $1.40 and beat Kiseki and Suave Richard in her first Japan Cup. Kiseki was rated 124 at his peak going in, Suave Richard 127.

Gentildonna ($7.60) beat the mighty Orfevre, rated 128 at the time, and Rulership, rated 124.

Therein lies the problem for Liberty Island. As good as Almond Eye and Gentildonna were, they didn't have to face a horse rated 133. In her first, Almond Eye (outside of herself, and the world record time) arguably won a fairly weak Japan Cup. Gentildonna beat Orfevre by a nose but did start $7.60 to do so.

Of course the race doesn't end there, although it would be a major upset if something other than Equinox or Liberty Island were to win. Do Deuce and Titleholder are both world class stayers on their day.

Titleholder especially when he's on is very good, but his very good is 128, not 133. He and Do Deuce have both struggled for consistency with injuries. Notably, Do Deuce is still the last horse to ever defeat Equinox, denying him narrowly in the Japanese Derby.

The race will be on from the outset. Races of this quality are rarely slowly run, and Titleholder in it all but assured a very strong gallop, but throw in the ride-or-die Panthalassa, who nearly pinched last year's Tenno Sho before Equinox mowed him down, and this will give track records a serious nudge.

To make things just a bit more interesting, they've gone and drawn barriers 1 and 2 with Liberty Island the fence, but there should be no false results with this sort of pace, and the strongest stayer, the toughest horse and the best jockeys should be fighting it out.

If they all run to their best, Equinox will be too strong for Liberty Island, who will need to improve another two lengths off her 6 length Oaks win, and another four off her last start win to beat him.

Almond Eye managed to show that level of improvement in world record time in her Japan Cup win which would've really stretched Equinox's best, but that doesn't mean Liberty Island will. It also doesn't mean Equinox might not even improve again if he has to.

Deep Impact's king rating of 134 stands alone in Japan, as does Almond Eye's 2.20.60 mile-and-a-half time.

Here's hoping Equinox rises to the challenge and smashes them both in a can't miss clash.