We head to Flemington as a whiff of Winter Finals day begins to emerge.

Looks a very tough day at HQ with big field and wide-open markets for some of the first Finals Day heats.

One of those comes up in Race 4 where Just For Show hovers around that $10 mark off a nice return at Caulfield over 1100m.

Just outsprinted late with 58kg, he ran to a new peak rating of 100 with Racing & Sports, which is within three pounds of the top raters in this race, who all bring very similar form.

Kalkallo has beaten Rue De Royale narrowly at their past two, running to 103 on both occasions, but I feel Just For Show can improve again with added fitness while the others have been up for some time.

He also improved his rating from 85 to 96 when getting to 1400m last time in and while 1100m to 1400m is maybe not the perfect set up, I think the price is more than fair.

The other one I'll back, also at double figures, is Regal Zeus in Race 8, coming out of the Pride Of Jenni race.

I thought he ran pretty well there considering he sat second in run to her, going at a speed that was simply far too quick for a horse of his ability.

Once you adjust for that negative finishing speed, he comes out in line with the other placegetters and the run looks quite good.

Three weeks between runs here is maybe one week shy of the gap I'd want given that run last time but if he's come through it well, he won't get nearly as much pressure this time around.

The wide draw also suits, forcing him to run along, at least at a decent tempo and make use of that fitness edge. The $13 seems a pretty fair gamble given his previous ratings make him just about favourite here.

The Melbourne Mail

Bet of the day: Race 4 #6 Just For Show at $10

Also backing: Race 8 #4 Regal Zeus at $13