The first day of the Adelaide Carnival kicks off on Saturday, headlined by the Sangster.
Hat tip to Racing SA who have done plenty right this year. Prize money for all Group Ones is up to $1 million and there's some big names confirmed.
Estriella may not be a 'big name' yet but by the end of the year she well could be. I'm happy to say she's the best three-year-old in the country (conveniently as nearly all the decent colts just retired), but regardless, she's very good.
The pieces were there in her first campaign that she was good- strong SP's in good races where she wasn't yet the finished product, but that experience has done her plenty good and she's continued to improve her ratings.
We have her going 108-112-118 in three runs this campaign, with that 118 the highest last start rating in this field. Three-year-olds have done very well for themselves here in recent years, winning three of the last six.
Ruthless Dame was rated 112 at her peak and only had to run to 114 to win the Sangster last year, beating Zapateo. Instant Celebrity was rated 107 and ran to 112 in 2021. Shoals, clearly the best of them, was rated 114 at her best going in, with three other 112's to back it up, matching her 116 peak in 2018.
Estriella is already at Shoals' level now, albeit without the swathe of ratings behind her. The obvious difference with her and the others is you got paid for finding them- Instant Celebrity was the shortest of the trio at $9.
That said, you can only compare Estriella against what she has to face, and while there are plenty of top mares here, they'll all do well to hit 118 here, and that's if Estriella doesn't improve again which she may well do- the market absolutely hammered her at Flemington and clearly has her going to big levels.
Of the ones with ratings to challenge, Passive Aggressive is the biggest price and perhaps biggest overs. She was very good first up in the Challenge running to 116, beating Zapateo, who then also went 116 in The Galaxy.
We'll make Estriella the best of the day with 2-1 around looking fair enough to me.
For the value play we'll roll back a race to the other Group 1 on the card, the Australasian Oaks.
Open betting race and plenty of angles but I think Vibrant Sun is the horse to beat having put up a good number in the Alexandra at Moonee Valley, backed up by strong late splits.
Looks suited getting to 2000m now and Zahra going on also helps. Her last start out-rated the local lead up won by Wings Of Song who won it well and also had strong splits and keeps measuring up. There isn't much between them but I think Vibrant Sun has more to offer and the Mick's should have her cherry ripe for this.
SAY FROM SA
Bet of the day: Race 8 #12 Estriella at $3
Also backing: Race 7 #6 Vibrant Sun at $6.50
