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Staking Strategy: Hobart - Sunday, 12th May 2024

The Tasmanian Racing Club in Hobart is hosting thoroughbred racing this week. An eight-race card includes the $50,000 2YO Sires Produce and 3YO Autumn Classic.

Picture: Steve Hart

Rainfall in Hobart has the track in the soft range leading into the weekend, and though the forecast is good, I'd expect the track to remain in the 4-5 range.

The rail is +7m, moving out 3m from the meeting a fortnight ago where the track raced exceptionally well.

R1 Ladbrokes Owners Incentive Maiden, 1100m

Mister Manihi (2) has had plenty of chances and let another one slip first up when shuffled back at a key stage in a race controlled from the front. He draws to land in the right spot with a senior rider going on. She Plays Games (12) was third in that race and has since finished third again, seemingly having her chance in a race run to suit the on-pacers. Visors replace winkers looking for a maiden win at start 19. Woolchaser (6) was impressive winning a trial in good time, with a solid margin back to Kissed By Mist (15) in behind. Stablemates Row Row Power (4) and Rowing Power (5) will make Col McNiff earn his cheque. Both have disappointed compared to SPs in their short careers, and they each resume without a public appearance. Gee Gee Dare (8), Gee Gee Saltbush (9) and April's Dance (7) have outperformed the market recently and are on an upward trajectory. Puzzle Miss (10) and Rare Oro (11) have their first Tasmanian starts but must improve their Victorian efforts.

R2 Winning Edge Presentations Maiden, 1400m

We All Decide (8) had an economical run before hitting the line very hard in the race won by Tough Impact. Tactics will be interesting here from barrier 9 as shes was plain at the start prior when box seating behind the speed. Open Arms (7) was fourth in the same race after settling behind the leader, while Zonna Verde (9) was back and wide, having no chance with the shape of the race. Sharp improvement wouldn't surprise from a better draw second up. Tideford (3) was good on a soft track last time, and this isn't much harder. Blinkers go on, and he's one runner that may go forward in a race lacking pace. Foreign Legion (1) finished behind a subsequent winner in Devonport and gets Newitt on.

R3 Kevin Sharkie Tasmanian Sires Produce, 1400m

Garcon D'Espoir (1) has the scalps of Native Clan (3) and Lady Fern (4) from his surprise win in Launceston where he jumped $16. He's clearly been saved for this but does meet the others worse at the weights fttor a small winning margin. Native Clan and Lady Fern have since raced in Hobart, where the winner survived a protest after a clash early in the straight, and Lady Fern was slow out and entitled to peak on her run late. You could make a case for all three while Halen (2) appears to be here for the guaranteed minor prize money.

R4 Aviso Tas Insurance Brokers Benchmark 76 Handicap, 2200m

All six of the career wins for Travelling Gigolo (1) have come in Hobart, and he placed in the 2023 Hobart Cup. Those performances give him a class edge on his rivals at this distance, though he admittedly did have every chance when beaten in Launceston last start. Yarra Master (2) was the outsider in a three-horse field in Hobart last time but fought doggedly to be beaten by a narrow margin. He's never won past a mile, but like the stablemate, this is his favourite venue. Page (3) was a soft winner last time, defeating Montezulu (5) who was on trial at the trip and will strip fitter, while Punter (6) was poor despite a soft run in front. A soft track may be key to his chances. Always A Winner (4) needs to bowl along in front. Dropping 5kg from last start will be advantageous to him if he can find the top.

R5 Ladbroke It! Benchmark 60 Handicap, 1400m

Lily Luella (12) was impressive, rounding them up from the tail for a first-up win. I think the barrier dictated the tactics that day, and she'll carry the same weight with Johnstone claiming 2kg on this program. Freak On A Lead (1) will try and dictate from the front and give Rocky his second career win. Zewinna (9) had the drop on him when they met in Launceston and has since run well again. McCoull, Newitt and Darmanin are the three winning pilots on Princess Matoaka (10) who'll be suited with a senior going back on and had no chance with where she settled last time. Rigoletto (4) was wide for the trip at the last Hobart program, a big run in defeat. Capital Cheval (5) has done little wrong in two runs back, but the barrier makes it very tough. Surely Special (6) is also racing in good form but will find this harder. Monte Bianco (14) races well in Hobart and can't be ruled out with any luck from 19/19.

R6 Tasmanian Bloodstock 3yo Autumn Classic, 1400m

Thespian Waters (1) is extremely well-placed here under the SW&P conditions of the race. He's going for four wins on the bounce and will likely be short odds to do so. Getting towards the end of a long campaign may be a slight query, but his form certainly isn't tapering. Sandual (2) made him earn the win last time but meets him 7.5kg worse. Wickham Light (6) was a good thing beaten at his first Tassie start and took bad luck out of the equation second up when rolling to the front and winning by a space. The placement here in a $50k race suggests the stable has an opinion of him. Blonde Star (10) was narrowly beaten at the T&D last start, with Lontano (7) a further length astern. Carnelian Rock (4) knocked off his maiden on the four-day backup in dominant fashion here three weeks ago. Gunship (3) was a different horse on the synthetic and warrants consideration if he can replicate that form on the grass.

R7 "it's Why We Race" Benchmark 66 Handicap, 1200m

Etosha (1) continues to run his rivals ragged, but it's arguably the way he's finished off his races recently that has been most impressive. He's getting up in the weights but will work across from the draw and take running down. Periwinkle (11) returns after three months and shared a photo with Etosha when she last raced. Sweet Lucifer (6) had the racing gods against him when second to Better Than Banksy last start and is better suited by the extra 100m. Creative Licence (10) has finished in the quinella in three of four at the track, and the recent trial was good. From the same stable, Rohzhae (12) doesn't know how to run a bad race and Fighting Floyd (9) has had race shape against him recently. Gee Gee Miss Quita (2) and Revivalist (2) warrant consideration resuming. Ring of Honour (3) and Bellasario (15) only need to bring their recent efforts to be in the mix. Deep race.

R8 Happy Mother's Day! Class 1 Handicap, 1100m

Dysart (1) didn't leave the rail when victorious at his first start in the state. He worked into a perfect spot there despite being slowly away, something that might not be as easy in a capacity field with plenty of speed. Tough Impact (6) is one of those speed runners, also a last-start maiden winner. He was very well-rated by Sanderson last time. Coronation Keely (7) was wide the trip as an easing favourite last time in a run that is easily forgiven. Ibutho (4) was poor on the carpet last start but good on the grass prior to that. Flying Billie (5) has changed stables since he last raced. He resumes without a public trial, and trainer & jockey have a strong strike rate when they combine. Bokeo (3) trialled better than Stardarmus (2) at the same recent Hobart session. Shall We Play (10) and Araya Sunshine (12) both came from well back to fight for the minors in the maiden won by Rohzhae in the previous race. Geegeeschaser (8) had things made to order when producing a fairy-tale for trainer and jockey. Barrier 16 looks like a big obstacle with speed drawn inside her.